3-Feb-2026
We gather today as friends of Certainty, who died after battling a long, horrible illness.
Certainty was born before time started. For most of the 20th century she was stalwart in our politics, economics, health systems and environment. And while she did suffer occasional lapses in her guidance, she always restored stability. She seemed absent during two World Wars, the race riots of the 1960s, and the economic crises of the 1970s. But Certainty eventually showed up.
In the 21st century, Certainty started showing obvious signs of ill health. The attack on the World Trade Centre, the financial crisis of 2008, and COVID-19 were all clear markers of her decline.
Today, Certainty is dead. And we grieve her loss.
In politics, the global world order has been replaced by something vague and unclear. The United States is behaving in a new way, wiping away anything Certainty had previously assured. It’s not even certain America will stay united as a country.
In Canadian politics, Certainty is greatly missed. In Quebec and Alberta, some are mounting campaigns to leave the country. Political leaders in Quebec are clear in stating their own opinion on the matter. But in Alberta, the Premier refuses to clearly state her position on separation, putting her own political career and unity within her party ahead of the unity of the country. If Certainty was alive today, she never would have put up with that.
In our health care system, Certainty has left an enormous hole. One used to be sure of receiving care at a hospital emergency centre. No longer. Health pandemics are lurking, micro-plastics in our food are threatening, and diseases both common and rare are ravaging.
Nowhere is Certainty going to be missed more than in our economy. Global trading nations and businesses used to rely on Certainty to guide decision makers. For nearly four decades, Certainty provided a stable, low- or zero-tariff environment for trade with the United States. Now, in the wake of Certainty’s death, all rests on the whim of a volatile and irrational president.
Certainty’s death has left a hole filled by disruption, disorder and chaos. It is a rupture, not a transition.
One of the clearest signs of Certainty’s death is investors’ interest in precious metals and crypto-currencies. Gold has long been a haven for skittish investors, but today it trades at dizzying and erratic prices. Crypto-currencies are even less predictable.
Certainty’s lasting legacy, however, lives on in our human connections.
We are certain of the love we have for our children. Our partners. Our parents. Our friends and our neighbours.
We are certain that the love, laughter, and loyalty binding us together will endure.
We are even certain of the kindness of strangers. It’s not always obvious. But on balance, we know that people are good and kind and will do the right thing in the moment of crisis.
Certainty’s death has left us in deep grief. Nothing in our physical, political or economic world feels right anymore.
But in this truth we take comfort: human connection lies at the heart of our politics and economics. And if her memory and legacy lives in human connection, there remains hope for everything else.
Rest in Peace, Certainty. And thanks for the memories.
