We’ve had our fair share of jaw-dropping economic disruption over the years — moments when the rug was yanked right out from under us. Think 9/11, the 2008 subprime meltdown, or the chaos unleashed by the pandemic.
But 2025 hits differently. This time, it’s not one big disruption — it’s a constant stream of them. Tariffs are the prime example. The White House says they’re on, then off, then back on again — and who knows what tomorrow brings. These “tariff tantrums” are just the beginning. Layer in wars, extreme weather, deepening polarization, and a rising cost of living, and the disruption is relentless.
I’m not the only economist waving the red flag. This is madness.
So what now? How should corporate leaders respond in this era of non-stop disruption? How can industry associations help steady their members? And how can business owners carve out a path forward in the middle of all this chaos?
First off, let’s stop pretending traditional forecasting has much use in times like this. I spent almost 30 years in corporate finance and forecasting, so I get the temptation — and yes, sometimes the legal obligation — to create a forecast.
But the reality is, the forecast will be wrong. In 2025, you could revise your forecast daily — maybe even hourly — and still get blindsided by the next disruption.
So what do we do instead? We take a page from the Stoics — those ancient philosophers who thrived in times of their own disruption. Epictetus, Seneca, and Marcus Aurelius laid down a simple, powerful framework nearly 2,000 years ago:
- Let go of what you can’t control;
- focus on what you can control; and,
- understand that your character, your actions, your reactions — these are within your power to shape.
Now let’s apply that to leadership in the chaos of 2025.
Step 1: recognize and accept what’s out of your control.
This is hard for Type A leaders who like to grip the wheel tightly. But no amount of ambition or drive can control tariffs, wars, interest rates, or global commodity prices. You might influence them — like how auto industry CEOs managed to delay certain Trump-era tariffs — but you don’t control them.
That doesn’t mean ignoring them. Recognize the disruption. Understand it. But don’t waste your energy lighting your hair on fire and wrestling with what you can’t change.
Step 2: focus your energy on what is in your control.
The Stoics talked about the core virtues: wisdom, courage, justice, and discipline. These aren’t just for individuals — they apply to organizations too.
Take justice. Companies can act justly toward employees, customers, suppliers, and even competitors. But disruption often tempts leaders to cut corners “for the good of the shareholders.” History tells us how that ends — just ask Enron or Lehman Brothers.
Step 3: in the long run, character is the only thing that matters
Remember that some of the stuff we chase — money, status, brand reputation — are what the Stoics called “preferred indifferents.” They’re good to have, sure. But they’re not what makes life meaningful — or a business sustainable.
In corporate life, that’s a hard pill to swallow. Of course we care about profit and performance. But in the chase for market share and quarterly gains, are we sacrificing what matters most? Are we making decisions that are unjust, unwise, or even cowardly?
If disruption is the new normal — and it sure feels like it is — then character becomes the only true constant. Leading with courage, fairness, and integrity is what will get us through.
So no, 2025 isn’t business as usual. It’s disruption on all fronts. But with a Stoic mindset and a steady moral compass, we can find clarity in the chaos.
And maybe even lead others through it.
