Can the premeditation of evil help us successfully navigate a tumultuous economy?

Todd Hirsch

9-MAR-2026

More than two thousand years ago, long before spreadsheets, central banks, and quarterly earnings calls, a group of philosophers developed a surprisingly practical technique for dealing with uncertainty. It was used by teachers, scholars, statesmen, and even a Roman emperor. 

Today, in a global economy that often feels chaotic and volatile, their advice may be more relevant than ever.

The Stoic philosophers practised something called premeditatio malorum—Latin for “the premeditation of evils.” The idea was simple but psychologically powerful: imagine what could go wrong before it actually happens. By mentally rehearsing misfortune, you rob it of its shock. If adversity arrives, you are not paralyzed by surprise. You are prepared.

One of the clearest expressions of this idea comes from Seneca the Younger, the Roman thinker, playwright, and political adviser. Writing nearly two millennia ago, he observed:

“Nothing happens to the wise man against his expectation… nor do all things turn out for him as he wished but as he reckoned — and above all he reckoned that something could block his plans.”  — Moral Letters to Lucilius, Letter 13

In other words, wisdom involves anticipating obstacles. Intelligent people do not assume that everything will unfold smoothly. They recognize potential pitfalls, accept that disruption is part of life, and plan accordingly.

The same mindset appears in the writings of Marcus Aurelius, who ruled the Roman Empire from 161 to 180 A.D. Despite being the most powerful man in the world at the time, his daily reflections reveal someone who expected trouble, not because he was pessimistic but because he was realistic.

In his personal journal, later published as Meditations, he advised himself:

“Begin each day by saying to yourself: Today I shall meet with interference, ingratitude, insolence, disloyalty, ill-will, and selfishness.” — Meditations, Book 2.1

This was not the diary entry of a defeated man. It was the mental preparation of a leader. Aurelius governed during wars, plagues, political intrigue, and economic strain. Obstacles were inevitable. By anticipating them, he was better able to remain calm and rational when disruption arrived.

The Stoics understood something modern psychology has rediscovered: uncertainty is often more destabilizing than adversity itself. When people expect stability and encounter chaos instead, panic follows. But when they have already contemplated the possibility of trouble, their minds are steadier. They are less reactive, and more strategic.

That insight feels particularly relevant when considering the economy of 2026.

To describe the current moment as uncertain hardly captures the mood. The global economy feels volatile, even chaotic at times. The first few weeks of the year alone have delivered a dizzying series of shocks: tariff disputes erupting between major trading partners, geopolitical violence spreading across fragile regions, oil prices spiking unpredictably, extreme weather damaging infrastructure, and political uncertainty reshaping alliances and markets.

Business leaders are being asked to navigate this environment in real time. None of it is simple. And much of it lies far beyond the control of any single firm.

This is where the Stoics offer a surprisingly practical exercise. Ask a difficult question: What is the worst thing that could happen?

It may feel like doom-and-gloom to frame the future this way. But the point is not to wallow in pessimism. The point is preparation. By imagining extreme scenarios in advance, organizations can explore how they might respond if the improbable becomes reality.

Consider a few hypothetical scenarios:

• A conflict in the Middle East expands dramatically, drawing in multiple regional powers and NATO members. Violence persists for more than a year, disrupting shipping lanes and energy markets.
• Trade tensions escalate sharply. The United States imposes sweeping tariffs of 50 percent on imports from key partners, with rules changing unpredictably from month to month. Global supply chains begin to fracture.
• Climate-related disasters intensify. Severe storms and flooding wipe out industrial zones and ports in multiple countries. Transportation networks—rail lines, highways, and shipping routes—are interrupted for weeks at a time. Insurance premiums for businesses surge.
• Global oil markets remain strained. With Brent crude climbing above $150 per barrel and staying there for months, energy costs ripple through the system. The result is slowing growth and a recession across much of the global economy.

These are dark scenarios. And importantly, none of them is particularly likely. But they are possible.

That distinction matters.

Premeditatio malorum is not about predicting the future. It is about preparing for the possibility that the future may not cooperate with our plans.

For corporate leaders, the exercise can be surprisingly useful. How would your company respond in such conditions? Which parts of your supply chain would break first? What would your competitors do? What reserves—financial, logistical, or human—would you need to survive?

The goal is not to become cynical about the future. The goal is to remove the element of surprise.

In a volatile world, resilience often belongs to those who have already imagined the storm before the clouds appear.

The Stoics understood this long ago. Premeditatio malorum was not an exercise in despair. It was a discipline of readiness, a way of confronting uncertainty with clear eyes and steady nerves.

Two thousand years later, the lesson still holds.